Despite advancements in automotive safety technology, smaller vehicles continue to pose a greater risk to drivers compared to their larger counterparts, particularly luxury SUVs. Recent driver death rate statistics from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) reveal a persistent safety disparity, highlighting the vulnerabilities associated with Small Cars and minicars.
According to the latest IIHS data for 2017 model year vehicles, small cars and minicars accounted for a significant majority – 15 out of 20 – of the vehicle models with the highest driver death rates. Conversely, nearly half of the models boasting the lowest death rates were luxury SUVs. This stark contrast underscores a critical safety concern for consumers considering purchasing small cars.
Joe Nolan, senior vice president of vehicle research at IIHS, explains the underlying reasons for this safety gap: “Smaller vehicles inherently offer less protection in crashes due to their size. Furthermore, their lighter weight means they absorb a greater proportion of the impact when colliding with larger, heavier vehicles.” This fundamental physics principle contributes significantly to the higher fatality rates observed in small car accidents.
The data reveals a dramatic difference in driver death rates across vehicle categories. Very large SUVs exhibit the lowest overall death rate, with just 15 fatalities per million registered vehicle years. In stark comparison, minicars have the highest rate, soaring to 82 deaths per million registered vehicle years. This substantial difference emphasizes the increased risk associated with choosing smaller, more compact vehicles.
Furthermore, the average driver death rate across all 2017 models has unfortunately increased to 36 deaths per million registered vehicle years, up from 30 for 2014 models. This upward trend marks a continued rise from a low of 28 for 2011 models, reversing a period of steady decline observed since the 1970s. This increase aligns with a broader rise in U.S. traffic fatalities during the study period (2015-2018) compared to the preceding four years (2012-2015), with fatalities increasing from 134,905 to 147,324.
The range of death rates among 2017 models is exceptionally wide, varying from zero fatalities for seven models to a concerning 141 deaths per million registered vehicle years for the worst performer, the 2017 Ford Fiesta 4-door minicar. Notably, the Ford Fiesta received only a “marginal” rating in the IIHS driver-side small overlap crash test, highlighting a correlation between poor crash test performance and higher death rates. Alarmingly, half of the 2017 models with the highest death rates were also among the worst performers in the previous IIHS study of 2014 models, indicating a persistent safety issue with certain small car models.
IIHS has been diligently calculating driver death rates roughly every three years since 1989. These rates specifically focus on driver deaths because every vehicle on the road has a driver, while passenger presence and numbers vary. The fatality data is sourced from the federal Fatality Analysis Reporting System, while vehicle registration data is provided by IHS Markit.
Driver death rates serve as a valuable complement to vehicle safety ratings, offering consumers crucial information for making informed purchasing decisions. While safety ratings, like those from IIHS, are designed to facilitate comparisons within the same vehicle size category, driver death rates enable comparisons across different vehicle classes. It’s important to note that frontal crash test results cannot be directly compared across vehicle sizes due to variations in kinetic energy related to vehicle weight.
However, driver death rates also have limitations as a comparative tool. While they are adjusted for driver age and gender, they do not account for other potentially influential factors such as driving speed, daily mileage, and the types of roads driven.
To investigate the impact of mileage, this year’s IIHS study incorporated a comparison of driver death rates per 10 billion miles traveled. Through a cooperative agreement with the Highway Loss Data Institute, IIHS was able to link Vehicle Identification Numbers to odometer readings from CARFAX, a vehicle history database maintained by IHS Markit. Odometer data was gathered from various sources, including title transfers, annual inspections, and routine maintenance services.
The mileage data largely reinforced the original findings regarding vehicle size and safety, while also shedding light on some notable exceptions. Sports cars and luxury cars, which generally accumulate fewer miles annually compared to other vehicle types, exhibited relatively higher driver death rates when measured by miles traveled. Conversely, pickup trucks tended to show lower death rates when analyzed by miles driven.
Within each vehicle category, the relative ranking of individual vehicles remained largely consistent regardless of the measurement method. Consequently, IIHS has decided to maintain its traditional registration-year method for publishing make and model-specific results.
Using the registration-year method, luxury SUVs dominate the list of safest vehicles, with nine of the 20 models with the lowest death rates falling into this category. Additionally, two more are midsize luxury cars, and four others are minivans or very large SUVs. Overall, luxury vehicles demonstrate substantially lower death rates compared to non-luxury vehicles of similar sizes.
This safety advantage in luxury vehicles is often attributed to their inclusion of advanced safety features that are not commonly found in less expensive models. These features include blind spot warning systems and lane departure prevention technologies, which contribute to accident avoidance and mitigation.
Interestingly, two small cars stand out as exceptions to the general trend for their size and class, regardless of whether driver death rates are measured by registered vehicle years or miles traveled: the Volkswagen Golf and the Nissan Leaf. These models achieved remarkably low death rates of 0 and 5 per million registered vehicle years, respectively, with identical rates per 10 billion miles. In contrast, the overall average for small cars was 61 deaths per million vehicle years and 45 per 10 billion miles, highlighting the exceptional safety performance of the Golf and Leaf within the small car category.
The Volkswagen Golf’s performance is particularly noteworthy considering that the 2014 model was among the worst performers, with a death rate of 63 per million vehicle years, before a redesign for the 2015 model year significantly improved its safety.
While mileage was not a determining factor in the Leaf’s excellent safety record, its status as an all-electric vehicle may offer some explanation. The usage patterns of electric vehicles, including when and where they are driven, could potentially contribute to lower accident rates.
The latest IIHS death rate figures are based on fatalities occurring between 2015 and 2018, for 2017 model year vehicles and earlier models with unchanged designs and features. While presented as risks for 2017 models, the data encompasses vehicles dating back to 2014 if they have not undergone substantial redesigns. Including these older, equivalent vehicles expands the sample size, enhancing the reliability of the results. To be included in the study, a vehicle must have accumulated at least 100,000 registered vehicle years of exposure from 2015 to 2018 or recorded at least 20 driver deaths.
Driver Death Rates by Vehicle Style and Size
Registered vehicle years vs. mileage
2017 and equivalent earlier models, 2015-18
| Deaths per million registration years | Deaths per 10 billion miles | Average annual mileage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36 | 26 | 13,794 | |
| Cars | 48 | 36 | 13,471 | |
| 4-door | ||||
| Mini | 108 | 78 | 13,897 | |
| Small | 62 | 45 | 13,772 | |
| Midsize | 43 | 30 | 14,468 | |
| Large | 52 | 36 | 14,618 | |
| 2-door | ||||
| Mini | 41 | 44 | 9,272 | |
| Small | 45 | 39 | 11,410 | |
| Midsize | 44 | 36 | 12,207 | |
| Large | 67 | 58 | 11,656 | |
| Sports | ||||
| Midsize | 51 | 63 | 8,045 | |
| Large | 48 | 50 | 9,529 | |
| Luxury | ||||
| Midsize | 22 | 20 | 10,961 | |
| Large | 19 | 19 | 10,244 | |
| Very large | 20 | 19 | 10,478 | |
| Station wagons | ||||
| Mini | 65 | 53 | 12,419 | |
| Small | 54 | 40 | 13,519 | |
| Midsize | 4 | 3 | 13,428 | |
| Minivans | 22 | 15 | 14,939 | |
| SUVs | 25 | 19 | 13,589 | |
| 4-wheel drive | ||||
| Small | 24 | 19 | 12,684 | |
| Midsize | 21 | 15 | 13,573 | |
| Large | 22 | 15 | 15,130 | |
| Very large | 7 | 4 | 17,969 | |
| 2-wheel drive | ||||
| Small | 42 | 31 | 13,774 | |
| Midsize | 34 | 24 | 14,429 | |
| Large | 26 | 17 | 15,510 | |
| Very large | 30 | 17 | 18,465 | |
| 4-wheel drive luxury | ||||
| Small | 25 | 23 | 10,629 | |
| Midsize | 9 | 7 | 11,827 | |
| Large | 5 | 4 | 12,476 | |
| Very large | 19 | 13 | 15,432 | |
| 2-wheel drive luxury | ||||
| Small | 44 | 40 | 11,121 | |
| Midsize | 11 | 9 | 12,056 | |
| Large | 26 | 18 | 14,841 | |
| Pickups | 29 | 18 | 16,155 | |
| 4-wheel drive | ||||
| Small | 24 | 18 | 13,429 | |
| Large | 26 | 17 | 15,526 | |
| Very large | 27 | 15 | 18,817 | |
| 2-wheel drive | ||||
| Small | 31 | 21 | 14,644 | |
| Large | 38 | 23 | 16,551 | |
| Very large | 28 | 13 | 22,167 |
Lowest Rates of Driver Deaths
Fewer than 9 driver deaths per million registered vehicle years, 2017 and equivalent earlier models, 2015-18
2WD: 2-wheel drive; 4WD: 4-wheel drive
| Overall driver deaths per million registered vehicle years | Multiple-vehicle crashes | Single-vehicle crashes | Single-vehicle rollovers | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMC Yukon XL 1500 4WD | SUV | Very large | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Infiniti QX60 2WD | Luxury SUV | Midsize | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Land Rover Range Rover Evoque 4WD | Luxury SUV | Small | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lexus NX 200t 4WD | Luxury SUV | Midsize | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mercedes-Benz C-Class sedan 4WD | Luxury car | Midsize | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Porsche Cayenne 4WD | Luxury SUV | Large | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Volkswagen Golf | 4-door car | Small | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lexus GX 460 4WD | Luxury SUV | Large | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Subaru Outback | Station wagon | Midsize | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Acura RDX 2WD | Luxury SUV | Midsize | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| BMW X5 4WD | Luxury SUV | Midsize | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| BMW X3 4WD | Luxury SUV | Midsize | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| Nissan Leaf | 4-door car | Small | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Cadillac Escalade 4WD | Luxury SUV | Large | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Lexus CT 200h | Luxury car | Midsize | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitsubishi Outlander 4WD | SUV | Small | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Toyota Sienna 4WD | Minivan | Very large | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Toyota Tundra Crew Max 4WD | Pickup | Large | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 |
| Chevrolet Suburban 1500 4WD | SUV | Very large | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Honda Odyssey | Minivan | Very large | 8 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Highest Rates of Driver Deaths
More than 65 driver deaths per million registered vehicle years, 2017 and equivalent earlier models, 2015-18
2WD: 2-wheel drive; 4WD: 4-wheel drive
| Overall driver deaths per million registered vehicle years | Multiple-vehicle crashes | Single-vehicle crashes | Single-vehicle rollovers | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ford Fiesta | 4-door car | Mini | 141 | 98 | 46 | 13 |
| Hyundai Accent | 4-door car | Mini | 116 | 85 | 28 | 9 |
| Chevrolet Sonic | 4-door car | Small | 98 | 64 | 34 | 10 |
| Nissan Versa Note | Station wagon | Small | 96 | 80 | 12 | 7 |
| Fiat 500 | 2-door car | Mini | 95 | 60 | 38 | 37 |
| Hyundai Elantra | 4-door car | Small | 89 | 71 | 15 | 9 |
| Kia Forte | 4-door car | Small | 89 | 63 | 24 | 2 |
| Nissan Versa | 4-door car | Small | 88 | 49 | 42 | 14 |
| Kia Rio | 4-door car | Mini | 87 | 51 | 38 | 0 |
| Ford Mustang GT coupe | Sports car | Midsize | 81 | 58 | 23 | 12 |
| Hyundai Accent | Station wagon | Mini | 81 | 64 | 17 | 9 |
| Nissan Sentra | 4-door car | Small | 81 | 53 | 26 | 11 |
| Chevrolet Sonic | Station wagon | Small | 74 | 59 | 13 | 13 |
| Chevrolet Trax 2WD | SUV | Small | 73 | 40 | 37 | 20 |
| Mitsubishi Mirage hatchback | 4-door car | Mini | 72 | 52 | 18 | 5 |
| Kia Soul | Station wagon | Small | 70 | 50 | 19 | 10 |
| Buick Verano | 4-door car | Midsize | 68 | 35 | 33 | 14 |
| Ford Focus | 4-door car | Small | 68 | 48 | 19 | 9 |
| Nissan Maxima | 4-door car | Midsize | 68 | 33 | 38 | 4 |
| Mitsubishi Outlander Sport 4WD | SUV | Small | 67 | 45 | 21 | 5 |
Conclusion: Size Matters When it Comes to Vehicle Safety
The IIHS driver death rate study provides compelling evidence that vehicle size remains a critical factor in occupant safety. While small cars can be economical and fuel-efficient, the data clearly indicates a higher risk of driver fatalities compared to larger vehicles, particularly luxury SUVs. Consumers prioritizing safety should carefully consider these findings and weigh the risks associated with small cars. While some small car models like the VW Golf and Nissan Leaf demonstrate that safety improvements are possible, the overall trend highlights the inherent safety advantages of larger, heavier vehicles. When making vehicle purchasing decisions, factoring in safety ratings and driver death rate statistics is crucial for protecting yourself and your loved ones on the road.
